Trenton, New Jersey, May 29, 2025 – As New Jersey’s June 10, 2025, gubernatorial primary approaches, the battle for the state’s governorship is shaping up as a critical test of messaging around President Donald Trump’s second term, with implications for the November general election and beyond. With Democratic Governor Phil Murphy term-limited, six Democrats and five Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination, each grappling with how to position themselves on Trump’s polarizing policies in a state that swung significantly toward him in the 2024 presidential election. The primary, one of only two gubernatorial races this year alongside Virginia, is seen as a bellwether for national sentiment on Trump’s agenda and the 2026 midterms.
Democratic Primary: A Race to Oppose Trump
The Democratic field—Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, NJEA President Sean Spiller, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney—has centered its messaging on resisting Trump’s policies. At a May 12 debate in Newark, candidates competed to prove who would fight hardest against Trump’s agenda, particularly his “big, beautiful bill” of tax cuts and program reductions. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot, condemned the bill, warning of a “police state” and attacks on rights, citing her military service in regions where detentions without charges occur. “I never thought I’d see this in America,” she said.
Ras Baraka, arrested on May 15 at a reopened ICE detention center in Newark, emphasized building a broad coalition across zip codes and nationalities to counter Trump’s attacks on programs like Social Security and Medicaid. Steve Sweeney, leveraging his South Jersey roots and union ties, stressed economic focus, arguing, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and criticized Democrats for losing their message. Josh Gottheimer, a moderate, positioned himself as best equipped to tackle affordability while opposing Trump, while Steven Fulop accused the Democratic establishment of being “lazy” and “ineffective” for allowing Trump to close the 2024 presidential gap to 5.9% in New Jersey. Sean Spiller, backed by $35 million from the NJEA, vowed to protect education and working-class families but missed the debate stage due to fundraising thresholds.
Posts on X, like those from @KnowlesHannah and @WPJohnWagner, highlight the primary’s intensity, noting one candidate’s AI-generated ad boxing with Trump and another’s warning that the GOP will “DOGE New Jersey,” referring to Trump’s cryptocurrency-friendly Department of Government Efficiency. Democrats aim to capitalize on special election wins showing anti-Trump sentiment, but with voter registration dipping to an 800,000 Democratic edge over Republicans (down from 1 million), complacency is a risk.
Republican Primary: Trump as Kingmaker
On the Republican side, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former radio host Bill Spadea, contractor Justin Barbera, and former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac are competing. Ciattarelli, who nearly defeated Murphy in 2021 with a 51%-48% loss, leads with 42% in a Rutgers-Eagleton poll, bolstered by endorsements from most county parties and a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC, “Kitchen Table Conservatives,” run by Trump allies like Kellyanne Conway. Spadea, polling at 12%, is a wildcard, having hosted Trump on his radio show in May 2024, where Trump praised him as “fantastic” and criticized Ciattarelli for distancing himself in 2021.
Trump’s potential endorsement could be decisive. While he has remained neutral, a nod to Ciattarelli could solidify his frontrunner status, while backing Spadea might fuel an upset, especially in GOP-stronghold Ocean County. Ciattarelli has emphasized electability and party unity, touting the tax cuts as necessary for “the highest taxed state in America,” while Spadea aligns more closely with Trump’s base, though past critical comments about Trump post-2020 could hurt him. The GOP hopes to exploit voter frustration with eight years of Democratic control in Trenton, with unaffiliated voters, nearly matching the Democratic registration edge, as a key battleground.
Trump’s 2024 Impact and November Implications
New Jersey’s 2024 presidential election saw Kamala Harris win by just 5.9%, a sharp decline from Biden’s 15.9% margin in 2020, marking the state’s second-largest rightward swing after New York. Trump flipped counties like Passaic, Gloucester, and Atlantic, driven by a 25% shift among Hispanic and Italian-American voters, particularly in North Jersey’s New York media market. This shift, attributed to Trump’s focus on household issues over identity politics, has led some analysts to view New Jersey as a potential swing state, especially after Ciattarelli’s strong 2021 showing.
For November, the primary’s outcome will signal how voters view Trump’s second term. Democrats are banking on backlash against his policies, like cuts to social programs, while Republicans frame him as a tax-cutting reformer. Political strategist Julie Roginsky posed the key question: “Do voters hate Phil Murphy more or Donald Trump more?” The answer will shape the general election, with Democrats like Sherrill and Gottheimer appealing to moderates and Republicans like Ciattarelli leveraging Trump’s base without alienating unaffiliated voters.
Key Dates and Voter Information
The primary is set for June 10, with early voting from June 3–8 and voter registration due by May 20. New Jersey’s closed primary system restricts voting to registered Democrats and Republicans, with unaffiliated voters choosing a party on Election Day. The general election is November 4. Voters can check registration status or apply for mail-in ballots via the New Jersey Division of Elections or call 1-877-NJVOTER.
The primary’s heated rhetoric, from AI ads to arrests, underscores its role as a testing ground for Trump’s influence. As candidates refine their messaging, New Jersey’s choice will offer a glimpse into national trends, with the winner poised to shape the state’s response to Trump’s agenda. For updates, visit nj.com or abcnews.go.com.