Trump’s Claim on Chicago Crime Reduction
President Donald Trump recently claimed that crime in Chicago has “fallen dramatically” due to a federal immigration enforcement operation, despite what he described as “extraordinary resistance” from local Democratic leaders. In a late-night post on Truth Social on November 11, 2025, Trump highlighted significant drops in key crime categories, attributing them directly to the initiative’s impact on removing “criminal illegal aliens.”
What is Operation Midway Blitz?
Launched in September 2025 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Operation Midway Blitz is a targeted federal crackdown in Chicago and surrounding areas focused on apprehending undocumented immigrants with criminal records, particularly violent offenders and those previously deported. The operation is named after a Chicago-area resident killed in a hit-and-run crash allegedly involving a suspected undocumented immigrant. It involves ICE agents, Border Patrol, and other federal law enforcement conducting raids, with over 3,000 arrests reported in the first two months (as of early November 2025). Trump has framed it as a broader anti-crime effort, tying it to his administration’s immigration policies, though critics argue it’s primarily an enforcement action against immigrants rather than a direct assault on local violent crime.
Local opposition has been fierce: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, both Democrats, have condemned the raids as disruptive and fear-mongering, with reports of assaults on federal agents during operations and legal challenges over the use of force. A federal judge in Chicago ruled on November 6, 2025, that DHS had exaggerated claims about local “riots” to justify aggressive tactics, restricting agent actions.
Trump’s Specific Claims on Crime Stats
Trump and DHS officials, including Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin, cited the following reductions since the operation began in September 2025 (comparing to the same period in 2024):
- Shootings: Down 35%
- Robberies: Down 41%
- Carjackings: Down nearly 50%
- Overall summer murders: Fewest since 1965
They argue these figures demonstrate the operation’s success in curbing violence linked to undocumented immigrants, with Trump declaring a “victory” over “sanctuary city” policies.
Fact-Check: Do the Data Support the Claim?
While Chicago has indeed seen notable crime declines in 2025, independent analyses and Chicago Police Department (CPD) data indicate the drops preceded Operation Midway Blitz and align with broader national and local trends, rather than being caused by federal immigration actions. Here’s a breakdown:
| Crime Category | 2025 YTD (Through Oct/Nov) vs. 2024 | Notes on Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Homicides | 359 (down ~28% from 497 through Oct 2024) | Sharpest drop in summer months (July-Aug 2025: -24% vs. 2024); fewest summer murders since 1965, but this predates September operation. |
| Shootings | Down 24% in Aug 2025 vs. Aug 2024 | Declines began in July; national violent crime down 22.1% in first 9 months, with Chicago leading major cities. |
| Robberies | Down 41% in Aug 2025 vs. Aug 2024 | Matches Trump’s figure but occurred before DHS arrival; attributed to local policing and community programs. |
| Carjackings/Thefts | Down ~28-50% (varies by source) in summer 2025 | Early declines in July-Aug; no direct link to federal ops in CPD data. |
| Overall Violent Crime | Down 22.1% (first 9 months) | Chicago outperforms national average; experts credit sustained local efforts, not federal immigration raids. |
- Key Context: CPD data shows these reductions accelerating in July and August 2025—months before the operation’s September launch—during Chicago’s peak violence season. This follows a post-pandemic rebound and aligns with drops in other major cities without similar federal interventions.
- Expert Views: Chicago Alderman Brian Hopkins called DHS’s attribution “strains credibility,” noting it ignores pre-existing trends and could erode public trust in law enforcement. Mayor Johnson echoed this, stating the feds “have nothing to do” with the progress. A New York Times analysis after six weeks of the operation found “the attack on crime that the president promised hasn’t happened,” with many Black Chicagoans—whom Trump claimed supported the “blitz”—expressing skepticism or opposition.
- Broader Critique: The declines undermine Trump’s push for federalizing the National Guard in Chicago, as local leaders argue their strategies (e.g., community violence interruption programs) are effective without overreach. Some reports suggest the operation has diverted resources and heightened tensions without proportionally impacting overall crime.
In summary, while crime is down substantially in Chicago—a positive development—evidence points to ongoing local and national factors as the primary drivers, not Operation Midway Blitz. Trump’s narrative appears to leverage real progress for political gain on immigration, but fact-checks from outlets like NBC News and Axios highlight the misleading causation. For the most current CPD stats, check their official dashboard, as numbers are updated weekly.