By Mark Smith
November 29, 2025
Pittsburgh, PA – Amid the twinkling lights and early Black Friday crowds at Ross Park Mall, retail expert Katie Thomas pauses by a rack of discounted sweaters, her eyes scanning the shoppers like a detective piecing together a puzzle. “This is where America shows its hand,” she says, nodding toward a young couple debating a $20 toy. “Holiday shopping isn’t just about deals—it’s a mirror to our collective psyche.”
As the 2025 holiday season kicks into high gear, Thomas, who leads the Kearney Consumer Institute, is decoding the subtle signals from bustling malls and surging online carts. What she sees? A nation that’s resilient yet rattled, splurging on joy while pinching pennies on everything else. With Black Friday sales underway and Cyber Monday looming, her insights cut through the frenzy, revealing how inflation, tariffs, and lingering uncertainty are reshaping the American wallet—and spirit.
The Frugal Festivities: A Tale of Two Economies
Thomas’s fieldwork at malls like Ross Park—once her teenage hangout—feels almost nostalgic in 2025. Back then, Black Friday meant midnight stampedes; now, it’s a more measured affair. Foot traffic is up slightly from last year but flat compared to the post-pandemic boom, according to Placer.ai data. Shoppers linger longer, comparing prices on apps before committing, a sign of what Thomas dubs the “frugal consumer.”
This mood tracks with broader surveys. Deloitte’s 40th annual Holiday Retail Survey, released last week, paints a picture of cautious celebration: Americans plan to spend an average of $1,595 this season, down 10% from 2024—the steepest drop since the early days of the pandemic. Seventy-seven percent expect higher prices on gifts and groceries, while 57% brace for a weakening economy, the gloomiest outlook since 1997. Yet, amid the worry, 87% of shoppers in Accenture’s parallel poll say they’ll maintain or increase spending to keep traditions alive, leaning on AI tools for smarter hunts and in-store vibes for that elusive holiday spark.
PwC’s Holiday Outlook echoes this push-pull: Overall seasonal spending dips 5%, with gifts down 11% and Gen Z slashing budgets by 23%. “Consumers are remixing the holidays,” says PwC analyst Kusum Manoj Raimalani. “They’re starting earlier—think ‘Summerween’ for Christmas deals—and prioritizing experiences over excess.” Nearly 80% of gift buying wraps before Cyber Monday, stretching the frenzy into a marathon rather than a sprint.
For Thomas, these numbers aren’t abstract. At the mall, she chats up a middle-aged dad eyeing electronics. “Tariffs are killing me,” he mutters, scrolling Amazon for a TV bundle. It’s a common refrain: President Trump’s trade policies have jacked up prices by nearly 5 percentage points on everything from apparel to appliances, per the Tax Foundation. But he’s here anyway, drawn by the “halo effect”—that emotional pull to celebrate despite the squeeze.
Expert Takes: Resilience Meets Reluctance
Thomas isn’t alone in her read. McKinsey’s Emily Reasor, who co-leads global specialty retail, calls the vibe “timid.” Consumer sentiment has tanked 35% from last year’s peak, with millennials—prime spending engines—shifting buys to August and September to dodge peak-season markups. “They’re confused, unsure,” Reasor notes. “Trading down to value channels like Walmart or using buy-now-pay-later keeps them in the game.”
Over at Bain & Company, forecasts peg holiday sales growth at a modest 4%, below the decade’s 5.2% average. “Strong wages clash with credit delinquencies and low confidence,” says economist Bill Adams of Comerica Bank. Yet, he adds, “Consumers keep saying the economy’s terrible while spending like it’s not.” Mastercard’s Michelle Meyer agrees: “There’s edge, but the halo of holidays buffers it.”
Circana’s consumer panel data spotlights volatility: E-commerce now claims 26% of retail dollars, up YoY, with mobile and social media steering 40% of impulse buys. Gen Z, per J.P. Morgan insights, flips the script—favoring credit over debit for the first time, chasing omnichannel perks like early-bird drops and AR try-ons. “They’re not cutting back; they’re reallocating to what feels meaningful,” Thomas observes, watching a teen film unboxings for TikTok.
Public reactions mirror this split. On Black Friday morning, lines at Best Buy snaked shorter than 2024’s, but online traffic surged 5.3% to $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving alone, Adobe Analytics reports. Shoppers like Veronica Nam, 68, from New York, blend bargain-hunting with restraint: “$256 on half-price sheets? Yes. Full gift list? Wait till post-Christmas.” In Charlotte, local observers note “smart shopping” over splurges, blaming high energy bills and softening jobs.
How This Mood Hits Home: From Wallets to Well-Being
For everyday Americans, this national mood translates to real trade-offs. Inflation lingers above target, unemployment ticks toward a four-year high, and tariffs ripple through supply chains, hiking costs on imported toys and tech. The top 10% of earners now drive 48% of spending—up from 35% in the ’90s—widening the gap as middle-class families lean on loyalty programs and AI deal-finders.
Lifestyle-wise, it’s a quest for balance: 40% seek in-store “festive ambiance” for that human touch, per Accenture, while 46% tap gen AI for comparisons—up from 39% last year. Politics creeps in too; with Trump’s return, tariff fears dominate chats at the food court, yet NRF’s Matthew Shay sees “record holiday spending walled off” from broader woes. Tech and sports tie in—discounted Nikes fly off shelves, and VR bundles for home workouts signal self-care amid gym fee hikes.
Economically, it’s a bright spot: NRF projects $1 trillion-plus in November-December sales, a first, with 187 million hitting stores or sites over the long weekend. But growth slows to 3.7-4.2%, per NRF, as shoppers average $890 per person—focused on necessities over novelties.
Looking Ahead: A Season of Smart Splurges
As Black Friday fades into Cyber Week, Thomas predicts a “remix” rather than retreat. Retailers like Target urge “celebrate without overspending,” blending deals with emotional hooks. Bain advises KVIs—key value items—to lure the discerning; Forbes Councils spot a fade in Black Friday hype, rising conscious buys like experiences over stuff.
In the end, this holiday tableau—frugal yet festive—hints at deeper truths. “We’re anxious, yes,” Thomas reflects, amid mall chatter. “But we’re showing up for each other. That’s the real American mood: Hope wrapped in hesitation.” With sales ticking toward record territory despite the gloom, 2026 could dawn brighter if retailers heed the signals—value, connection, and a dash of magic.
Mark Smith covers retail and consumer trends for [Your News Site]. Reach him at mark.smith@newsite.com.
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