Democrats Face Low Poll Numbers, but James Carville Highlights Electoral Wins in 2025
Washington, D.C., May 16, 2025 – Despite a series of polls showing the Democratic Party’s favorability ratings at historic lows, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville remains optimistic, pointing to recent electoral victories as evidence of the party’s resilience. In interviews with Fox News, CNN, and The Daily Beast, Carville acknowledged the party’s image challenges but emphasized wins in key races, including mayoral and judicial elections, while predicting success in Virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial race. The disconnect between polling and election results, reported by Fox News and AP-NORC, underscores a complex political landscape for Democrats six months after significant losses in the 2024 presidential election.
Polling Challenges for Democrats
Recent surveys paint a grim picture for the Democratic Party’s public perception:
- AP-NORC Poll (May 2025): Only 36% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, a 12% drop since September 2024, compared to 41% for Republicans, who gained 2%. Among Democrats, optimism fell from 57% in July 2024 to 35%.
- Fox News Poll (April 18–21, 2025): Democrats hit an all-time low with 41% favorable and 56% unfavorable, trailing Republicans (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable) for the first time in a decade.
- Harvard Youth Poll (April 2025): Approval for congressional Democrats among 18–29-year-olds plummeted, reflecting erosion among a traditional base.
- NBC News Poll (March 2025): The party’s favorability sank to 27%, the lowest since 1990, highlighting a broader crisis of confidence.
These numbers follow the Democrats’ 2024 election setbacks, where Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, reclaimed the White House, Senate, and held a fragile House majority. Losses among Black, Hispanic, and young voters—key Democratic constituencies—further deepened the party’s challenges.
Carville’s Optimism: Electoral Victories
James Carville, a strategist famed for Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, dismisses polling woes by focusing on recent wins, arguing that “you can’t discount people winning elections.” Key victories include:
- Omaha, Nebraska (May 8, 2025): Democrat John Ewing Jr. defeated 12-year incumbent Republican mayor Jean Stothert, becoming Omaha’s first Black mayor in a red state.
- Wisconsin Supreme Court (April 2025): Liberal candidate Susan Crawford won by 10 points against GOP-endorsed Brad Schimel, a high-profile race drawing national attention.
- Special Elections: Democrats flipped red-state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania and performed strongly in House districts Trump carried by 20 points in 2020.
Carville also looks ahead to Virginia’s November 2025 gubernatorial election, confidently predicting a win for Democrat Abigail Spanberger against Republican Glenn Youngkin’s term-limited seat. “I don’t think anybody wants to bet me that Spanberger doesn’t win,” he told The Daily Beast, offering to “book any bet.”
On CNN with Kaitlan Collins, Carville acknowledged the party’s image as “in the toilet” but downplayed mid-May angst, stating, “We’re winning elections left and right.” He urged Democrats to focus on results over polls, a sentiment echoed on X by users like @realTuckFrumper and @fadingsunsjvj_v, who shared his comments on Democratic resilience.
Carville’s Broader Strategy and Critique
Carville attributes the polling slump to messaging failures and internal party dynamics:
- Economic Narrative Loss: In a January 2025 New York Times op-ed, Carville admitted misjudging the 2024 election, where Trump won by seizing middle-class and low-income voters focused on the economy. He argued Democrats must reclaim this narrative, as “perception is everything,” and voters feel Democrats don’t address their economic pain.
- Messaging Missteps: Carville has criticized “coastal elite” jargon and “feminine” messaging, like NPR-style rhetoric, for alienating male and working-class voters. He told Fox News in July 2024 that terms like “communities of color” or preaching about diet and lifestyle cost votes, especially among young men.
- Tactical Pause: In a February 2025 New York Times piece, Carville advocated a “strategic retreat,” urging Democrats to “play possum” and let Trump’s policies, like tax cuts for the wealthy, erode his approval. He predicted a collapse in Trump’s ratings, citing a Harvard poll showing a drop from 53% to below 39% early in 2025, though other polls, like CBS/YouGov, showed Trump in positive territory.
Carville’s optimism contrasts with internal party tensions. Rep. Ro Khanna admitted Biden’s 2024 candidacy was a mistake due to health concerns, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer faced criticism for supporting a Republican spending bill, prompting calls for new leadership. Carville slammed the “identity left” for electoral losses, challenging progressives to “beat a Republican” before claiming influence.
Analysis and Implications
The gap between Democrats’ low favorability and electoral wins suggests a nuanced reality:
- Local vs. National: Carville’s cited victories are in off-year or special elections, which often have lower turnout and favor motivated bases. These may not reflect national trends, where Trump’s 2024 gains among diverse voters persist.
- Polling vs. Results: Polls measure sentiment, not always voting behavior. Democrats’ success in Omaha and Wisconsin reflects strong local candidates and issues like judicial balance, but national favorability lags due to 2024’s economic focus and Trump’s dominance.
- Virginia as a Test: The 2025 Virginia race, with Spanberger as a moderate, will gauge Carville’s prediction. A win could bolster his narrative, but a loss would highlight polling’s predictive power.
Critics argue Carville’s optimism glosses over structural issues, like the party’s urban image and loss of working-class voters, as he noted in a 2024 U.S. News interview. His clash with DNC vice chair David Hogg over primary challenges reflects generational divides, with Carville calling Hogg’s $20 million plan to oust older Democrats “insane.”
Conclusion
James Carville remains bullish on Democrats’ prospects despite favorability ratings hitting historic lows in 2025, pointing to wins like Omaha’s mayoral race and Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election. He predicts a Virginia gubernatorial victory and urges focus on economic messaging over polling angst. However, the party’s challenges—messaging, voter alienation, and internal rifts—suggest electoral successes may not yet translate to broader recovery. For updates, follow Fox News (www.foxnews.com) or The Daily Beast (www.thedailybeast.com).
Note: Information is based on sources as of May 16, 2025, at 12:46 AM IST. Verify with primary sources for accuracy.