**Yes – on *October 29, 2025*, a *2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel* signaled deep skepticism during oral arguments, suggesting it may reverse a $16.1 billion judgment (now ~$18B w/ interest) against Argentina – a major setback for investors Petersen Energía & Eton Park + funder Burford Capital (stock ↓15%).
Case Snapshot: Petersen/Eton Park v. Argentina (S.D.N.Y.)
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Plaintiffs | Petersen Energía Inversora (Argentine) + Eton Park Capital (hedge fund); funded by Burford (~35-73% entitlement). |
| Defendant | Argentina (re: 2012 YPF expropriation – seized 51% from Repsol for $5B; no tender to minorities). |
| Claims | Breach of YPF bylaws (NYSE-listed; required tender offer under Argentine law). |
| District Court (2023) | Judge Loretta Preska: Liability (Mar) + $16.1B damages (Sep; $8B interest). |
| 2nd Circuit Hearing (Oct 29) | Judges Chin/Cabranes/Robinson: “Should’ve been in Argentina” – U.S. courts misapplied Argentine law; “life-threatening” to economy (~45% 2024 budget). |
| Key Quote | Judge Chin: “Flip it… U.S. in Argentina’s shoes?” |
Why “Uphill Battle?” – Core Arguments
- Forum Non Conveniens: Purely Argentine dispute; U.S. judge created “unprecedented remedy” no Argentine court would.
- Comity/Respectful Consideration: Overreach on foreign sovereign acts.
- Argentina’s Counsel (Robert Giuffra): “Made up… not authorized by Argentine law.”
Burford’s Paul Clement: Defended NYSE jurisdiction (“raise capital → get sued”).
Market Impact
- BUR stock: ↓15% (intraday); mcap hit ~$300M+.
- YPF: Unaffected (dismissed below; cross-appeal).
Next Steps (Months-Years)
- Ruling: 2026 (typical 2nd Cir. timeline).
- If Reversed: Victory for Milei (post-midterms); Burford “defeat.”
- If Upheld: SCOTUS + enforcement (stayed YPF shares; global pursuits: UK/France/etc.).
- Settlement?: Likely (Burford: “resolves for less”).
Broader: Litigation funding risk spotlight – sovereign cases = volatile.
Track: 2nd Cir. Docket (search “YPF” or “Petersen”). “Skepticism = signal.” 🚀